Announcement

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Monday Market Monitor - India (WEEK 30) - Slide retards

Indian Steel Prices Index reflected weakness in Indian domestic steel market during last week.. The Indian Long Product Price Index ILPPI and Indian Flat Products Index IFPPI slid by 11 points. As a result, the overall price index INDSPI also dipped by 11 points.


Class 17-Jul 24-Jul Change
ILPPI 6108 6097 -11
IFPPI 6996 6984 -11
INDSPI 6531 6520 -11

ILPPI - Indian Long Product Price Index
IFPPI - Indian Flat Product Price Index
INDSPI - Indian Steel Price Index

Long Products

Category 17-Jul 24-Jul Change
PI - TMT 5744 5725 -19
PI - WRC 6736 6739 3
PI - Angle 5719 5685 -34
PI - Channel 5734 5734 -1
PI - Joist 5366 5334 -32

PI - Product Index

Flat products

Category 17-Jul 24-Jul Change
PI - Narrow Plates 6571 6569 -2
PI - Wide Plates 6813 6806 -7
PI - Hot Rolled 6841 6824 -17
PI - Cold Rolled 7621 7613 -8
PI - Galvanized 7392 7392 0

PI - Product Index

To know more about these indices please visit
http://steelprices-india.com/spi_services/spi.html

The weakness is primarily attributed to sluggish demand from various steel consuming sectors, clearly contradicting the Indian government’s portrayal of the India being the shining star in terms of growth alongside with China. This is much more pronounced for long products, which are at ruling at lowest levels for at least last two years due to scanty demand from infrastructure demand despite Indian governments push for spending.

The scanty rains further augur peril for the already emaciated economy and industry. Independent experts have rung the bell with downward revision of GDP growth rate of 5.8% from the earlier 7% and Industrial Production to 4.8% from 5.1% for 200910.

The Indian government is bound to shift focus to providing succor to the agriculture sector and restrain the inflated consumer price index. As the government is already burdened with huge deficit, the diversion of funds is likely to leave its infrastructure plans high and dry. The plummeting industrial activity and low infrastructure spending will have a cascading effect on the steel consumption causing market depression at least till the end of monsoon.

Input Material - Modest recovery

There was customary recess after prolonged slide although it can be deceptive as turnaround seems fundamentally absent with sagging demand. There was sober recovery in port city of Mumbai as the international prices remains adamant. On the other hand hinterland consumption centres viz., Mandi showed softening as the demand for semis and finished products refused to pick up.

In Ship breaking scrap at Alang saw a positive movement as the market attained stability after streak of slashes and renegotiations during July. Although tempering of volatility cannot be assured immediately in the tumultuous recession.

Melting scrap
80:20
HMS

Location Change %
Chennai -500 -3.3%
Kandla 89 0.5%
Mumbai 600 4.2%
Mandi -1269 -7.5%
Kolkata 0 0.0%
Kanpur 89 0.6%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Alang

Product Size Change %
Ships Mixed 300 2.3%
Plate cuttings 1” 1100 6.7%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Pencil ingot

Location Change %
Mumbai 400 2.0%
Mandi 831 3.9%
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kanpur 355 1.7%
Kolkata -444 -2.4%
Ghaziabad 400 2.0%
Muzzafarnagar -577 -2.8%
Ahmedabad 600 3.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Pig Iron

Location Change %
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kolkata -1110 -6.7%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Sponge iron

Location Change %
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kolkata -711 -6.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Long Product Prices - At lowest levels

ILPPI level of 6097 as of July 24th 2009 is the lowest since we started this index on July 1st 2008 as the previous lowest level was 6373 on July 16th 2009.


Class Date Index
ILPPI 24-Jul 6097

ILPPI - Indian Long Product Price Index

The YoY change in the Indian Long Product Price Index ILPPI is 38% as compared to 31% in Indian Flat Product Price Index IFPPI and overall reduction of 35%in INDSPI.

Category 24-Jul’08 24-Jul’09 Change %
ILPPI 9874 6097 -3778 -38%
IFPPI 10153 6984 -3168 -31%
INDSPI 10007 6520 -3487 -35%

ILPPI - Long Product Price Index
IFPPI - Flat Product Price Index
INDSPI - Indian Steel Price Index

TMT
Fe 415
12mm

Location Change %
Chennai -1000 -3.4%
Mumbai 225 0.8%
Mandi 416 1.4%
Kolkata -866 -3.1%
Delhi 1047 3.8%
Kanpur 700 2.6%
Ahmedabad -675 -2.5%
Indore 200 0.7%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

WRC
SWR14
5.5/6

Location Change %
Chennai 0 0.0%
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kolkata -385 -1.4%
Delhi 462 1.6%
Kanpur 0 0.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

ANGL
GR A
65x6

Location Change %
Chennai -800 -2.7%
Mumbai 225 0.8%
Mandi 416 1.3%
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kolkata -1082 -3.7%
Delhi 520 1.9%
Kanpur 0 0.0%
Ahmedabad 225 0.8%
Indore -100 -0.4%
Bangalore 0 0.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

CHNL
GR A
75/100

Location Change %
Chennai -500 -1.7%
Mumbai 225 0.8%
Mandi 416 1.3%
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kolkata -541 -1.9%
Delhi 520 1.8%
Kanpur 400 1.4%
Ahmedabad 225 0.8%
Indore -100 -0.4%
Bangalore 0 0.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

JSTI
GR A
250x125

Location Change %
Chennai -500 -1.7%
Mumbai 225 0.8%
Mandi 208 0.7%
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kolkata -1082 -3.5%
Delhi 520 1.7%
Kanpur 300 1.0%
Ahmedabad -416 -1.4%
Indore -500 -1.6%
Bangalore 0 0.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Flat products - Remains firm

The hurtling price escalation was subdued during last week. There was price reversal in Delhi as the pre budget euphoria vanished squeezing the retail margin while the manufacturers refused to cut prices.

Supply constraint with steel majors like Ispat Industries Ltd operating at 50% capacity and Essar Steel slated for annual maintenance in early August coupled with significant improvement in demand from the automotive and white goods sectors is expected to keep the market on traction in August.

HRC
Tube
2.5x1250

Location Change %
Mumbai 0 0.0%
Ludhiana 370 1.2%
Kolkata 0 0.0%
Delhi -647 -2.0%
Ahmedabad 0 0.0%
Indore 0 0.0%
Bangalore 0 0.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Patra

Location Change %
Ludhiana 277 1.0%
Mandi 1293 5.2%
Delhi 462 1.8%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

PLTS
GRA
8x1.5

Location Change %
Chennai 0 0.0%
Mumbai 0 0.0%
Kolkata 178 0.6%
Delhi -462 -1.5%
Kanpur 267 0.9%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

PLTS
GRB
12-20x2.5

Location Change %
Chennai -950 -3.1%
Mumbai 0 0.0%
Raipur 0 0.0%
Kolkata 0 0.0%
Delhi -462 -1.5%
Kanpur 178 0.6%
Ahmedabad 0 0.0%
Indore 0 0.0%
Bangalore 0 0.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

CR
DSK
0.63x1000

Location Change %
Chennai 0 0.0%
Mumbai 0 0.0%
Pune 0 0.0%
Kolkata 444 1.2%
Delhi -924 -2.6%
Kanpur 0 0.0%
Ahmedabad 0 0.0%

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in INR per tonne

Indian export levels - Rebound on demand revival from MEA and USA


Item Grade Size Delivery Change
PLTS Structural 12-40x2.5 FOB Vizag 20
HDG 100Gms 0.4 FOB Mumbai 10
PPGI Standard RAL 0.4 FOB Mumbai 0

Change is on July 24th 2009 as compared to July 17th 2009
Change is in USD per tonne

Indian import offers

Following deals have been reported

1. 40,000 SAE 1006 grade HRC from CSN at USD 565 per tonne CFR Mumbai

2. 20,000 08KP HRC from Ilyich at USD 465 per tonne FOB Black Sea

3. 15,000 A36 plates from Ilyich at USD 485 per tonne FOB Black Sea

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(Sourced from www.steelprices-india.com)

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